Israel, the developed country with the world’s highest fertility rate at nearly three children per woman, faces a strategic challenge not simply because of population growth but due to uneven education and employment within its rapidly expanding communities, experts say.
“If Israel does not halt the combination of high birth rates, inadequate education and widespread workforce non-participation, the country risks its long-term survival,” said Prof. Dan Ben-David, president of the Shoresh Institution for Socioeconomic Research.
Data from the World Bank shows Israel’s fertility rate is almost double that of Mexico, the next highest in the OECD, and far exceeds the global average of 2.2 children per woman. Neighboring countries such as Egypt, Jordan, Syria and Lebanon all have lower fertility rates.
Israel’s demographic shifts are complex. While fertility rates among Muslim, Christian and Druze women have dropped sharply since 2000, Jewish women’s fertility has risen slightly. Arab women’s employment rates have also increased substantially in recent years, rising from 33% in 2014 to nearly 50% in 2025.
The ultra-Orthodox community’s fertility rate remains the highest, though it declined modestly from 7.2 children per woman in 2000 to 6.5 in 2022. This trend followed significant child allowance cuts in the early 2000s but the fertility decline was less than expected even as female employment soared from 47% to 81%.
There is debate over the exact fertility rate for ultra-Orthodox women. While Israel’s Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS) reports 6.5 children per woman, the Institute for Haredi Strategy and Policy estimates it at 6.2 based on administrative birth records. The CBS projects ultra-Orthodox Jews could constitute 32% of Israel’s population by 2065, though some estimates place that figure closer to 20-25%.
Educational shortcomings are acute. Approximately half of Israeli students receive schooling at levels comparable to those in developing countries, particularly in the ultra-Orthodox and Arab sectors and in peripheral geographic areas.
The economic impact is severe. Absence of ultra-Orthodox men from the workforce costs the economy an estimated 54 billion shekels annually, a figure that could rise to 400 billion shekels by 2065 if current trends persist, totaling 6.7 trillion shekels in lost output over time.
Ben-David warns, “The low-quality education this growing population receives will limit Israel to a third-world economy incapable of sustaining advanced health, welfare or security systems. Israel will not become a third-world country but it cannot survive if it cannot defend itself.”
