This led to the decision to proceed with the operation, planned by the IDF and Shin Bet in recent weeks, demonstrating a necessary improvement in intelligence capabilities and an emphasis on surprise and deception.
The IDF won’t earn a distinction
Alongside its military offensive, Israel’s security officials are counting on two major shifts in recent months. The first is the change in U.S. leadership and the White House’s support for Israel’s moves — ranging from effectively canceling the second phase of the previous ceasefire deal to approving Tuesday’s attack.
The second, also linked to the political shift, is the halt of humanitarian aid, though Hamas continues to distribute what has already entered Gaza — something that, according to military officials, must be stopped as well.
Over the past year and a half, the IDF has focused its efforts on dismantling Hamas’ military capabilities. When it comes to civilian infrastructure, however, the army’s performance has been far from stellar. The recent parades of Toyota convoys at Hamas-organized ceremonies ahead of hostage releases made that clear.
“Halevi was right that IDF soldiers shouldn’t be handing out food but the army can supervise civilian companies — just not Hamas-controlled ones,” the source explained. Zamir seems to align with this view: top military officials understand that this maintains legitimacy that keeps it in power as long as it profits from food sales.
“You can’t ignore the civilian component and expect to defeat Hamas,” said a senior IDF officer. “We need to reach a point where Hamas has no control over aid — only then can we start discussing governance alternatives.” While military pressure can achieve some results, it’s difficult to surprise Hamas or force a decisive outcome that will bring it to the negotiating table.
Two possible scenarios
At this stage, military officials see two possible scenarios: in the first, Hamas caves and agrees to a broad and swift deal. In the second, it refuses to back down, prompting the IDF to resume large-scale ground operations — bringing with it all the challenges of reserve call-ups and further burdening the standing army, which is already facing a severe manpower shortage.
What would be different this time? “There’s no need to reinvent the wheel in Gaza — it’s simply not possible militarily,” said a senior IDF general involved in planning. “But we can apply more firepower simultaneously rather than in a phased approach.”
Yossi YehoshuaIsrael hopes that the intensity of the airstrikes, the rising Palestinian casualty count and the extended border closures — this time with U.S. backing — will convince Hamas that it’s better not to wait and find out how much worse things can get.
However, Hamas still holds 59 hostages, both alive and deceased and Israel’s efforts to safeguard them offer no guarantees of success. That made Tuesday a difficult day for the hostages’ families and the coming days don’t look any more promising.
